the Real Adiel
Dec 1 2004, 04:59 PM
Here are the rules:
1) A pick must be posted after closing in the first few days of every month.
2) The following information must be included with the ticker
.......1) Closing Price
.......2) Target Price
.......3) Target Date
3) Target date must be no longer then 12 months
4) If a stock reaches the target date before the target price the ticket is closed.
When posting a new pick, please update previous picks performance. For example:
MSFT 28.50 -3.1%
MO 62.50 +12.3%
GTWY 12.00 "Closed" +28% (annualized +58%)
EBAY 90.00 "Closed" -2% (annualized -4%)
Let's make some money!
the Real Adiel
Dec 1 2004, 05:06 PM
December Pick
PLCE
Closing Price: 31.48
Target Price: 39.00
Target Date: 12/01/05
318 shares
the Real Adiel
Jan 5 2005, 08:32 AM
January Pick
NXTI
Closing Price: 1.45
Target Price: 2.05
Target Date: 01/01/06
6896 shares = $9,999.20
Dec Pick update:
PLCE bought: 31.48
Current Price: 35.10
+11.5%
318 shares = $11,161.80
investor relations
Jan 5 2005, 01:49 PM
I am a firm non-beleiver in target prices and target dates and the like. They are predictions based little on the long term fundamentals and prospects of the companies. A little anecdote, I was going through some of my picks one of which being CDIC and I was reading some of the brokers predictions on the price etc..
One loony tune said he loved the stock and the product yadda yadda yadda and he put the price target at $22.00 a share! The year was 2001 I beleive, and the stock never got over $7.00. You can estimate performance in a general way long term, but to make predictions on the price and when it is going to happen is a joke in my opinion.
the Real Adiel
Jan 5 2005, 02:18 PM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jan 5 2005, 01:49 PM)
I am a firm non-beleiver in target prices and target dates and the like. They are predictions based little on the long term fundamentals and prospects of the companies. A little anecdote, I was going through some of my picks one of which being CDIC and I was reading some of the brokers predictions on the price etc..
One loony tune said he loved the stock and the product yadda yadda yadda and he put the price target at $22.00 a share! The year was 2001 I beleive, and the stock never got over $7.00. You can estimate performance in a general way long term, but to make predictions on the price and when it is going to happen is a joke in my opinion.
Why would you say that? If I believe in the fundamentals of a company you can figure out the value and estimate what the price the stock will be in a year because of your knowledge. It's also a transparent way to document your skill at stock picking.
investor relations
Jan 5 2005, 02:23 PM
In theory it should work, using the fair value approach. However if you look at all the brokerage houses predictions for the stocks they research it is down right comical how off they are.
the Real Adiel
Jan 5 2005, 03:34 PM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jan 5 2005, 02:23 PM)
In theory it should work, using the fair value approach. However if you look at all the brokerage houses predictions for the stocks they research it is down right comical how off they are.
Exactly! You can see who is good and who isn't
Pure Myrrh
Jan 5 2005, 03:36 PM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jan 5 2005, 02:23 PM)
In theory it should work, using the fair value approach. However if you look at all the brokerage houses predictions for the stocks they research it is down right comical how off they are.
Stock analysts are like shadchanim.
investor relations
Jan 5 2005, 03:52 PM
QUOTE(the Real Adiel @ Jan 5 2005, 03:34 PM)
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jan 5 2005, 02:23 PM)
In theory it should work, using the fair value approach. However if you look at all the brokerage houses predictions for the stocks they research it is down right comical how off they are.
Exactly! You can see who is good and who isn't
Nobody is right more than 50% of the time. Some times they guess right sometimes they guess wrong. Almost like technical analysis. (For long term anyway)
the Real Adiel
Jan 6 2005, 09:16 AM
QUOTE
Nobody is right more than 50% of the time
Couldn't disagree with you more. Over the next year I will have 12 picks I will wager 8 of them will hit my target (which is almost always a minimum 20% gain).
investor relations
Jan 6 2005, 12:08 PM
QUOTE(the Real Adiel @ Jan 6 2005, 09:16 AM)
QUOTE
Nobody is right more than 50% of the time
Couldn't disagree with you more. Over the next year I will have 12 picks I will wager 8 of them will hit my target (which is almost always a minimum 20% gain).
Just to make my self a little clearer. there is no way someone could be correct ON HIS PRICE TARGET AND DATE more than 50% of the time.
the Real Adiel
Jan 6 2005, 02:59 PM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jan 6 2005, 12:08 PM)
QUOTE(the Real Adiel @ Jan 6 2005, 09:16 AM)
QUOTE
Nobody is right more than 50% of the time
Couldn't disagree with you more. Over the next year I will have 12 picks I will wager 8 of them will hit my target (which is almost always a minimum 20% gain).
Just to make my self a little clearer. there is no way someone could be correct ON HIS PRICE TARGET AND DATE more than 50% of the time.
The date doesn't mean it's going to hit the target price on that date, it means that it will hit the target on or before the date.
the Real Adiel
Feb 1 2005, 01:58 PM
February Pick
OSIS
Closing Price $16.34
Target Price: $21.00
Target Date: 02/01/06
612 shares = $10,000
Jan Pick update:
NXTI bought: 1.45
Current Price: 1.60
Target Price: 2.05
+10%
6896 shares = $11,033.60
Dec Pick update:
PLCE bought: 31.48
Current Price: 37.94
Target Price: 39.00
+18.5%
318 shares = $12,064.92
QUOTE(the Real Adiel @ Feb 1 2005, 01:58 PM)
February Pick
OSIS
Closing Price $16.34
Target Price: $21.00
Target Date: 02/01/06Jan Pick update:
NXTI bought: 1.45
Current Price: 1.60
Target Price: 2.05
+10%
Dec Pick update:
PLCE bought: 31.48
Current Price: 37.94
Target Price: 39.00
+18.5%
So Real Adiel - are you making like wagon loads of money based on your picks?
hafle
Feb 1 2005, 07:40 PM
Does anyone understand this?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gruI know pople who made serious money off this.
I don't understand how it is flying up so fast.
I have a gut feeling it's some israeli scam.
the Real Adiel
Feb 1 2005, 10:35 PM
I doubt the company is a scam, I know someone who interviewed there 4 years ago. They have been around a while and the last I remember they had a little search bar that floated on your screen. I'm not sure what they are up to now.
How they will make money is beyond me. Unless your huge, you can't make real money on advertising.
Whats with all the hype stocks you pick, the last one was also a garbage stock.
the Real Adiel
Feb 1 2005, 10:36 PM
QUOTE(int @ Feb 1 2005, 02:31 PM)
QUOTE(the Real Adiel @ Feb 1 2005, 01:58 PM)
February Pick
OSIS
Closing Price $16.34
Target Price: $21.00
Target Date: 02/01/06Jan Pick update:
NXTI bought: 1.45
Current Price: 1.60
Target Price: 2.05
+10%
Dec Pick update:
PLCE bought: 31.48
Current Price: 37.94
Target Price: 39.00
+18.5%
So Real Adiel - are you making like wagon loads of money based on your picks?
I'm on a roll, usually my picks don't do this well, this quick.
the Real Adiel
Feb 3 2005, 05:10 PM
PLCE (December's Pick) reached it's target today.
Total Return: 24%
Annualized return: 140%
hafle
Feb 10 2005, 12:25 AM
TERN is a very good stock to invest in right now.
After reporting losses in the annual report the stock has slid to 2.50 and will likely slip dpwn an additional 20c.
The losses are do to restructering the company
So 'chap arein' while it is cheap!
They forcast a 25 million dollar profit for the next quater and they will also be launching a new video program shortly.
The stock is expected to steadily climb to 6 dollars by the end of the quater.
skrat
Feb 10 2005, 12:46 PM
QUOTE(the Real Adiel @ Feb 1 2005, 11:35 PM)
I doubt the company is a scam, I know someone who interviewed there 4 years ago. They have been around a while and the last I remember they had a little search bar that floated on your screen. I'm not sure what they are up to now.
How they will make money is beyond me. Unless your huge, you can't make real money on advertising.
Whats with all the hype stocks you pick, the last one was also a garbage stock.
[right][snapback]153684[/snapback][/right]
business model used to be (haven't been following it so much now but friends worked there when it was atomica) to sell the technology to companies so that individuals can cut down on research time.
if advertising is down so much then why is google doing so well? isn't that where the bulk of their revenues come from?
investor relations
Feb 14 2005, 11:36 PM
QUOTE(hafle @ Feb 10 2005, 12:25 AM)
TERN is a very good stock to invest in right now.
After reporting losses in the annual report the stock has slid to 2.50 and will likely slip dpwn an additional 20c.
The losses are do to restructering the company
So 'chap arein' while it is cheap!
They forcast a 25 million dollar profit for the next quater and they will also be launching a new video program shortly.
The stock is expected to steadily climb to 6 dollars by the end of the quater.
[right][snapback]158311[/snapback][/right]
They still are expecting a loss in the next quarter, and the loss in the 4th quarter was also due to a 21% decrease in sales. Stam Leha'ir.
the Real Adiel
Feb 15 2005, 10:28 AM
QUOTE(skrat @ Feb 10 2005, 12:46 PM)
QUOTE(the Real Adiel @ Feb 1 2005, 11:35 PM)
I doubt the company is a scam, I know someone who interviewed there 4 years ago. They have been around a while and the last I remember they had a little search bar that floated on your screen. I'm not sure what they are up to now.
How they will make money is beyond me. Unless your huge, you can't make real money on advertising.
Whats with all the hype stocks you pick, the last one was also a garbage stock.
[right][snapback]153684[/snapback][/right]
business model used to be (haven't been following it so much now but friends worked there when it was atomica) to sell the technology to companies so that individuals can cut down on research time.
if advertising is down so much then why is google doing so well? isn't that where the bulk of their revenues come from?
[right][snapback]158669[/snapback][/right]
Like I said, unless
your big you can't make money on advertising
investor relations
Feb 15 2005, 06:16 PM
Tern looks good. Great cash flow. Dont care much for the business.
the Real Adiel
Feb 16 2005, 08:58 AM
I would short TERN and cover at $2.75
investor relations
Feb 16 2005, 12:54 PM
QUOTE(the Real Adiel @ Feb 16 2005, 08:58 AM)
I would short TERN and cover at $2.75
[right][snapback]162296[/snapback][/right]
Based on charts? Fundamentally I would have to disagree. They are now focusing on their Digital video networking applications which is having explosive growth, up 91% year over year. It shouldnt take long for this to be become their primary source of revenue. Last year (this quarter) this accounted for 15% of total revenue, this year it is up to 44% of total revenue.
the Real Adiel
Feb 16 2005, 08:11 PM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Feb 16 2005, 12:54 PM)
QUOTE(the Real Adiel @ Feb 16 2005, 08:58 AM)
I would short TERN and cover at $2.75
[right][snapback]162296[/snapback][/right]
Based on charts? Fundamentally I would have to disagree. They are now focusing on their Digital video networking applications which is having explosive growth, up 91% year over year. It shouldnt take long for this to be become their primary source of revenue. Last year (this quarter) this accounted for 15% of total revenue, this year it is up to 44% of total revenue.
[right][snapback]162460[/snapback][/right]
Still overpriced based on hype, not saying it's a bad company. I'm just saying it's overpriced. I think the market in general is due for a small correction.
investor relations
Feb 16 2005, 10:18 PM
The company might be a little overpriced, but keep a look out. It all depends on how fast they can grow revenue in the digital video networking field. The market I think is fairly priced, maybe a little sideways trading for a while.
the Real Adiel
Feb 22 2005, 06:23 PM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Feb 16 2005, 10:18 PM)
The company might be a little overpriced, but keep a look out. It all depends on how fast they can grow revenue in the digital video networking field. The market I think is fairly priced, maybe a little sideways trading for a while.
[right][snapback]163015[/snapback][/right]
I hope I'm wrong, good luck!
the Real Adiel
Mar 1 2005, 10:24 AM
March Pick
WLSA
Current Price: .61
Target Price: .85
Target Date: 3/1/06
23169 shares = $14,133
Feb Pick Update:
OSIS bought: $16.34
Current Price: $16.98
Target Price: $21.00
+3.5%
855 shares = $14,517.90
Jan Pick update:
NXTI bought: 1.45
Current Price: 1.35
Target Price: 2.05
-7%
9957 shares = $13,441.95
Dec Pick update:
PLCE bought: 31.48
CLOSED
Total Return = 24%
the Real Adiel
Mar 31 2005, 04:58 PM
April Pick
CYD
Current Price: $8.44
Target Price: $11.75
Target Date: 4/1/06
1,454 shares = $12,267.69
Mar Pick Update:
WLSA bought: $.61
Current Price: $.46
Target Price: $.85
-25%
18,239 shares = $8389.94
Feb Pick Update:
OSIS bought: $16.34
Current Price: $17.51
Target Price: $21.00
+7%
725 shares = $12694.75
Jan Pick update:
NXTI bought: 1.45
Current Price: 1.35
Target Price: 2.05
-7%
9397 shares = $12,685.95
Dec Pick update:
PLCE bought: 31.48
CLOSED
Total Return = 24%
the Real Adiel
Apr 11 2005, 03:21 PM
CYD (April's Pick) reached it's target today.
Total Return: 39%
Annualized return: 1294%
the Real Adiel
May 4 2005, 07:07 AM
May Pick
EXM
Current Price: $13.85
Target Price: $17.50
Target Date: 5/1/06
1030 shares = $14,271
Total return on picks to date over 5 months:
H.com -4.6%
S&P -1%
DOW +1.6%
NASDAQ -7.8%
Apr Pick Update:
CYD bought: $8.44
CLOSED @ $11.75
Total Return = 39%
Mar Pick Update:
WLSA bought: $.61
Current Price: $.49
Target Price: $.85
-20%
26955 shares = $13,208
Feb Pick Update:
OSIS bought: $16.34
Current Price: $14.20
Target Price: $21.00
-13%
1026 shares = $14,569
Jan Pick update:
NXTI bought: 1.45
Current Price: 1.21
Target Price: 2.05
-17%
12,927 shares = $15,641
Dec Pick update:
PLCE bought: 31.48
CLOSED
Total Return = 24%
Annualized Return = 140%
the Real Adiel
May 4 2005, 07:12 AM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Feb 16 2005, 01:54 PM)
QUOTE(the Real Adiel @ Feb 16 2005, 08:58 AM)
I would short TERN and cover at $2.75
[right][snapback]162296[/snapback][/right]
Based on charts? Fundamentally I would have to disagree. They are now focusing on their Digital video networking applications which is having explosive growth, up 91% year over year. It shouldnt take long for this to be become their primary source of revenue. Last year (this quarter) this accounted for 15% of total revenue, this year it is up to 44% of total revenue.
[right][snapback]162460[/snapback][/right]
Like I said, Short
TERN and cover at $2.75
the Real Adiel
May 10 2005, 03:04 PM
EXM (May's Pick) reached it's target today.
Total Return: 26%
Annualized return: 1054%
Classic
May 10 2005, 03:07 PM
I was just thinking about you, wondering what was up.
the Real Adiel
May 10 2005, 03:21 PM
QUOTE(Classic @ May 10 2005, 04:07 PM)
I was just thinking about you, wondering what was up.
[right][snapback]216043[/snapback][/right]
Your too kind.
the Real Adiel
Jun 1 2005, 09:42 AM
June Pick
INTL
Current Price: $20.53
Target Price: $26.75
Target Date: 6/1/06
663 shares = $13,605
Total return on picks to date over 6 months:
H.com +1.3%
S&P +0.1% (1,192)
DOW -2.9% (10,783)
NASDAQ -4.9% (2,175)
May Pick Update:
EXM bought: $13.85
CLOSED @ $17.50
Total Return = 26%
Apr Pick Update:
CYD bought: $8.44
CLOSED @ $11.75
Total Return = 39%
Mar Pick Update:
WLSA bought: $.61
Current Price: $.52
Target Price: $.85
-15%
36,888 shares = $19182
Feb Pick Update:
OSIS bought: $16.34
Current Price: $14.90
Target Price: $21.00
-9%
1,268 shares = $18,893
Jan Pick update:
NXTI bought: 1.45
Current Price: 1.20
Target Price: 2.05
-17%
15,931 shares = $19,117.4
Dec Pick update:
PLCE bought: 31.48
CLOSED
Total Return = 24%
Annualized Return = 140%
Miketab
Jun 5 2005, 04:28 PM
QUOTE(the Real Adiel @ Jun 1 2005, 11:42 AM)
Total return on picks to date over 6 months:
H.com +8.0%
S&P +0.1% (1,192)
DOW -2.9% (10,783)
NASDAQ -4.9% (2,175)
[right][snapback]232770[/snapback][/right]
Very impressive Adiel, I must say...
the Real Adiel
Jun 6 2005, 03:07 PM
QUOTE(Miketab @ Jun 5 2005, 05:28 PM)
QUOTE(the Real Adiel @ Jun 1 2005, 11:42 AM)
Total return on picks to date over 6 months:
H.com +8.0%
S&P +0.1% (1,192)
DOW -2.9% (10,783)
NASDAQ -4.9% (2,175)
[right][snapback]232770[/snapback][/right]
Very impressive Adiel, I must say...
[right][snapback]236748[/snapback][/right]
Thank You
investor relations
Jun 15 2005, 01:55 PM
brvo. Bravo! Foods International.
The Rabbi
Jun 15 2005, 02:20 PM
The wisest investor in the world said "In the long term the stock market is a voting mechanism, in the long term it is a weighing mechanism." I agree with IR that making short term predicitions is just foolish.
I push two stocks:
HH
SWB.
Now SWB has gone up a lot and is starting to develop momentum. This is usually a reason to get out. But for people who like the big MO go right ahead.
hashfanatic
Jun 15 2005, 02:45 PM
How about Boeing? I hear they're going to whip Airbus's butt.
investor relations
Jun 16 2005, 12:41 AM
QUOTE(hashfanatic @ Jun 15 2005, 03:45 PM)
How about Boeing? I hear they're going to whip Airbus's butt.
[right][snapback]243437[/snapback][/right]
Unlikely. The only thing they have over airbus is the US military spending, thats it.
hashfanatic
Jun 16 2005, 06:24 PM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jun 16 2005, 01:41 AM)
QUOTE(hashfanatic @ Jun 15 2005, 03:45 PM)
How about Boeing? I hear they're going to whip Airbus's butt.
[right][snapback]243437[/snapback][/right]
Unlikely. The only thing they have over airbus is the US military spending, thats it.
[right][snapback]243922[/snapback][/right]
Yeah, but Airbus's new product is a great big behemoth of an aircraft-expensive, in an age of rising fuel prices and competive margins.
Boeing, on the other hand, has a lighter, smaller plane that saves money.
investor relations
Jun 17 2005, 11:49 AM
QUOTE(hashfanatic @ Jun 16 2005, 07:24 PM)
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jun 16 2005, 01:41 AM)
QUOTE(hashfanatic @ Jun 15 2005, 03:45 PM)
How about Boeing? I hear they're going to whip Airbus's butt.
[right][snapback]243437[/snapback][/right]
Unlikely. The only thing they have over airbus is the US military spending, thats it.
[right][snapback]243922[/snapback][/right]
Yeah, but Airbus's new product is a great big behemoth of an aircraft-expensive, in an age of rising fuel prices and competive margins.
Boeing, on the other hand, has a lighter, smaller plane that saves money.
[right][snapback]244828[/snapback][/right]
Airbus is subsidized by European Governments.
cynic
Jun 17 2005, 11:50 AM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jun 17 2005, 12:49 PM)
QUOTE(hashfanatic @ Jun 16 2005, 07:24 PM)
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jun 16 2005, 01:41 AM)
QUOTE(hashfanatic @ Jun 15 2005, 03:45 PM)
How about Boeing? I hear they're going to whip Airbus's butt.
[right][snapback]243437[/snapback][/right]
Unlikely. The only thing they have over airbus is the US military spending, thats it.
[right][snapback]243922[/snapback][/right]
Yeah, but Airbus's new product is a great big behemoth of an aircraft-expensive, in an age of rising fuel prices and competive margins.
Boeing, on the other hand, has a lighter, smaller plane that saves money.
[right][snapback]244828[/snapback][/right]
Airbus is subsidized by European Governments.
[right][snapback]245464[/snapback][/right]
And I believe voluntarily dropped some/all the subsidies instead of being taken to the WTO.
hashfanatic
Jun 17 2005, 11:53 AM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jun 17 2005, 12:49 PM)
QUOTE(hashfanatic @ Jun 16 2005, 07:24 PM)
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jun 16 2005, 01:41 AM)
QUOTE(hashfanatic @ Jun 15 2005, 03:45 PM)
How about Boeing? I hear they're going to whip Airbus's butt.
[right][snapback]243437[/snapback][/right]
Unlikely. The only thing they have over airbus is the US military spending, thats it.
[right][snapback]243922[/snapback][/right]
Yeah, but Airbus's new product is a great big behemoth of an aircraft-expensive, in an age of rising fuel prices and competive margins.
Boeing, on the other hand, has a lighter, smaller plane that saves money.
[right][snapback]244828[/snapback][/right]
Airbus is subsidized by European Governments.
[right][snapback]245464[/snapback][/right]
Well, by the French and Germans, but of the French portion, a larger amount is funded by their government.
investor relations
Jun 17 2005, 11:55 AM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jun 15 2005, 02:55 PM)
brvo. Bravo! Foods International.
[right][snapback]243370[/snapback][/right]
click thisand
this , I strongly suggest you listen to the 1st quarter conference call.
investor relations
Jun 20 2005, 10:53 AM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jun 17 2005, 12:55 PM)
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jun 15 2005, 02:55 PM)
brvo. Bravo! Foods International.
[right][snapback]243370[/snapback][/right]
click thisand
this , I strongly suggest you listen to the 1st quarter conference call.
[right][snapback]245472[/snapback][/right]
My oh my.
the Real Adiel
Jun 20 2005, 02:53 PM
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jun 20 2005, 11:53 AM)
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jun 17 2005, 12:55 PM)
QUOTE(investor relations @ Jun 15 2005, 02:55 PM)
brvo. Bravo! Foods International.
[right][snapback]243370[/snapback][/right]
click thisand
this , I strongly suggest you listen to the 1st quarter conference call.
[right][snapback]245472[/snapback][/right]
My oh my.
[right][snapback]247275[/snapback][/right]
Holy Cow, Nice Pick!!!
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please
click here.